Terrorist Threat Assessment Netherlands 52
Right-wing extremism
In Europe, and also in the Netherlands, a right-wing terrorist attack by a loner is conceivable. Although the Dutch right-wing extremist offline scene is characterized by fragmentation, weak leadership, personal animosity and lack of a consistent organization, can be the threat of one (internet-)loner come. Furthermore, in the Netherlands there seems to be some resonance from the terrorist attack in Christchurch in some individuals. They are not so much driven by well-defined right-wing extremist ideas, but have been getting excited about social developments in society and politics in particular from a mix of personal grievances and psychological problems.
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Right Terrorism
The right-wing terrorist attack in Christchurch has inspired several perpetrators worldwide, like in El Paso, Oslo, Halle and Hanau. In the Netherlands, too, a legal terrorist attack by a loner is conceivable. This estimate is mainly based on the possibility that a Dutch (internet)loner radicalizes and commits to a right-wing extremist act of violence. The Dutch right-wing extremist and right-wing extremist organizational landscape is fragmented, groups are marginal and non-violent and no appealing leaders can mobilize large groups. It is precisely here that there is a danger with regard to the threat posed by loners because they are disorganized (online) can radicalize.
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The threat from the right-wing extremist is increasing, right-wing terrorist attacks are glorified online and inspire like-minded people.
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Worldwide right-wing extremist internet community
In recent years, an increase in right-wing extremist violence has been observed in various European countries, like Britain and Germany. In Germany, for example, three attacks have taken place in the past nine months (the murder of Lübcke, Halle and Hanau). Characteristic of the current right-wing extremist attackers is that they are no longer members of a neo-Nazi group, but often seem to feel part of a global internet community. Glorification of such attacks on right-wing extremist forums is a source of inspiration for like-minded people. The narrative, that is used on international online forums, is partly inspired by the anti-Semitic and racist periodical Siege, which appeared in the United States in the 1980s. This philosophy also has some sympathizers among Dutch right-wing extremists, making such a copycat assessment also conceivable in the Netherlands.
Confrontations between the right- and left-wing extremists
In recent years, contradictions and confrontations between far-right and far-left groups in countries such as the United States and Germany have surfaced. The polarized political climate in the United States is reflected in international extremist online channels that are also used by the Dutch.
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Extremism, radicalization and polarization
Manifestations of right-wing extremism in the Netherlands are few in the streets, in the scale of violent incidents, in organization, in financing and in willingness to violence. The group of Dutch right-wing extremists active internationally online is also limited.
Right-wing extremism in the Netherlands
Unlike countries like Germany, France, Belgium, Britain and Italy have few extremist organizations and few activists in the Netherlands. In the Netherlands, there has been a small number of extremist violent incidents per year for many years. The visibility of right-wing extremists on the street is marginal. The Dutch right-wing extremist scene is in numbers, organizational structures, financing and the willingness to commit violence cannot be compared to neighboring countries.
De Anger
Two lawsuits have recently been launched that shed more light on the appeal that the terrorist act in Christchurch and the motives behind it can exert on individuals in Dutch society. The profiles of the suspects in these lawsuits are different from those of the attacker in Christchurch and his epigones. These are not young men who have been radicalized via the internet, but older men whose ideological background seems to be consistent with the German concept of Wutbürger: furious (system hating) citizens who are not so much driven by well-defined right-wing extremist ideas, but have been getting excited about social developments in society in general and in politics in particular from a mix of personal grievances and psychological problems. Refugees and Muslims often have to suffer, because they would threaten the "self" of Dutch society.
Online right-wing extremism
The recently hacked database of the fascist and neo-Nazi private web forum IronMarch shows that a small group of Dutch right-wing extremists was active online internationally and searched for right-wing extremist content. This forum is linked to international Neo-Nazi (online) groups, zoals Nuclear Weapons Division and Fire War Division, and had between ten to fifteen users who seem to come from the Netherlands over a period of seven years. Not so much the number of Dutch people, but especially the apocalyptic and violent "Siege narrative", which Dutch youngsters also enjoy is disturbing.