Summary Terrorist Threat Netherlands 49

Changes in the threat from jihadist side coincide with developments in Salafist and extreme right-wing circles, as their increased assertiveness and mutual interaction. The increase in the influence of the Salafist movement takes place in a time in which high resistance exists against the assumed growing influence of Islam in society, in the right-populist and right-wing circles. The anti-Islamic discourse has increased in recent years on social media and hardened. Especially right-wing extremist circles, where the fight against Islam and jihadism important mobilizing and unifying factors, grab Salafist ideas to legitimize an Islamophobic agenda. In turn refer Salafi men constantly Islamophobic narratives that problematize Islam in general to reinforce their message. This interaction contributes to social polarization. Partly because of the increased polarization of the terrorist threat from the extreme right-wing lone actor now more important than the threat of terrorist violence by larger right-wing extremist group links. Yet the resurgence of the extreme right in the Netherlands is still slightly in violence, but more in an increasingly aggressive and opruiender internet discourse - even towards politicians and administrators.

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Growth of right-wing violence appears to be continuing Although the extreme right and left-terrorist violence figures in Europe 2018 have not been unambiguous, the NCTV get the last three years of partner organizations clear signs that both the severity and extent of right-wing violence in several countries in Western Europe and North America is increasing. This is reflected in a study by the Institute for Economics & Peace. The number of deaths due to violence by right-wing groups and individuals grew between 2014 en 2017 van 4 to 17. The increased popularity of right-wing populism and right-wing extremism in Europe and the United States is reflected in the increasing threat posed by right-wing terrorists and the effective exercise of the right-terrorist violence. Including in France, Duitsland, the United Kingdom and Spain, small groups and singletons were arrested who were making preparations for attacks. Targets include refugees, Muslims, leftist opponents, prominent politicians and government institutions. The threat of violence has shifted since the seventies large right-terrorist groups to small cells and singletons. Three right-wing terrorist attacks in the United States in October and apparently corresponding perpetrator profiles of the three white men have a heated discussion that let arisen about whether the perpetrators are moved by the speech of President Donald Trump. Trump discourse resonates even in right-wing circles in Europe. This resonance at the attackers (nationalism, xenophobia, moslimhaat, antisemitism and belief in conspiracy theories) feeds perceptions of politicians, scientists and (radical) leftist opponents Trump is partly responsible for these attacks. Analysis of the statistics of the FBI (and other organizations) on hate crimes in the US, however, show that the increase in the number of hate crimes in the US since before his victory Trumps.

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Left-wing and far-left organizations that fight (putative) racism and fascism stirring more active. Where they chose several years ago to ignore demonstrations by extreme right groups in particular, they organize a half years since a counter-demonstration in every far-right demonstration of some size. That leads to a hardening of the confrontations. Links are operated much more violence against the right and sought confrontation with the right also deliberately. Due to increased self-confidence to go to the extreme right also more confrontational. Yet left-wing extremists do not seem to have a clear strategy to serve the new manifestations of the extreme right of reply. It is conceivable that the left-wing extremists will make more of themselves heard in the near future against the revival of right-wing extremists.

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Right-wing extremism
The right-wing extremist movement in Europe has two faces. On the one hand, a movement characterized by fragmentation, weak leadership, personal animosity, and the lack of a consistent organization. On the other hand, professional practice small cells and loners / lone actors increasingly serious violence in several European countries. In the past three years, politicians in several European countries at least eight times been the target of person targeted violence with terrorist intent or purpose foiled plans. The cases of the past three years shows that the threat of personal violence directed against national politicians from both right-wing extremists (4 of the 8), Left-wing extremists (2 of the 8) as jihadists (2 of the 8) and that the violence is committed or contemplated by both loners and groups. In Europe, Dutch right-wing extremists no leadership. Recent studies of the AIVD and NCTV the right-wing extremist scene in the Netherlands and Europe show an image of a movement with many on- and offline activity outside the known organizations, in which stand the very fluid dressings. The danger posed by the lone actor in the implementation of the right-terrorist violence in the Netherlands is now more important than the threat of violence by larger groups of persons. Thus a man guilty of preparing and promoting committing murder with a terrorist intent and illegal possession of a firearm and ammunition with the same objective. In addition, the man turned his sights on Muslim and leftist leaders. He was sentenced to 36 months. (See supplement KafkaL /https://kafka.nl/extreemrechtse-terreurverdachte-lid-anti-terreur-brigade/ For an article about this man) AIVD and NCTV warn of the impact of the polarized public debate on 'lone actors'. The revival of the extreme right in the Netherlands is still not so much in committing violence, but in an increasingly aggressive and opruiender internet discourse. The new self-confidence also reflected in openly seeking the confrontation right with leftist opponents in cities with active leftist movement as Amsterdam and Nijmegen. Small right-wing extremist groups are also particularly active in intimidating and radical actions that they create unrest within Muslim communities. The attraction of the alt-right movement since the emergence of Donald Trump clearly visible in several European countries including the Netherlands and Belgium. The Dutch alt-right scene online is very focused on overseas and particularly in the United States.

Polarization around Zwarte Piet is widened
Black Piet discussion running for years, but since 2014 brighter tone that more and more identity issues become linked with the discussion. The fact that opponents of Zwarte Piet consider the kids as racist ensures acclaim but also resistance within society. As yet there are no concrete indications that there is an increasing threat of violence, but it is conceivable. The government is a complicating factor that the threat of violence not have to go from known groups, but also organize angry citizens on their own initiative outside legal action. The wide living polarization in addition, entails the risk that can escalate an incident with possible legal actions at the outside. Another risk of polarization is that for some reduces confidence in the government. A broad-based social compromise on how Sinterklaas is celebrated is not in sight, so the debate still will continue to bring some years security issues with it.