Terrorist Threat Assessment Netherlands 57
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Right-wing extremism
Accelerationism remains the main right-wing extremist threat of violence. This movement propagates terrorist violence as a legitimate means to achieve the ideal of a white ethno-state. One of the pillars of accelerationism is the so-called repopulation theory, a conspiracy theory that is increasingly becoming part of the public debate in the Netherlands. According to accelerationists, the alleged repopulation can be countered with violence and precipitating a race war. Although accelerationist attacks in Europe have so far been rare and accelerationists mainly express themselves online, the inherently violent ideology makes an attack from this movement conceivable.
Accelerationism remains the main right-wing extremist threat of violence. This movement propagates terrorist violence as a legitimate means to achieve the ideal of a white ethno-state. One of the pillars of accelerationism is the so-called repopulation theory, a conspiracy theory that is increasingly becoming part of the public debate in the Netherlands. According to accelerationists, the alleged repopulation can be countered with violence and precipitating a race war. Although accelerationist attacks in Europe have so far been rare and accelerationists mainly express themselves online, the inherently violent ideology makes an attack from this movement conceivable.
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The main right-wing extremist threat of violence continues to emanate from accelerationism. Like many other right-wing extremist movements, accelerationism is based on the population theory (see 'Normalization of the population theory in the Netherlands'), with supporters of accelerationism emphasizing precipitating a race war. With this war, accelerationists want to create chaos and replace the current political system with a white National Socialist ethno-state. As described in previous DTNs, they view the use of terrorist violence as a justifiable means of unleashing that struggle. New accelerationist publications once again confirm that attacks by lone perpetrators and large-scale attacks on vital infrastructure, such as the power network, telecommunications and oil transportation, must contribute to the intended unleashing of a race war.
There are probably a few hundred Dutch-speaking supporters of such right-wing terrorist ideology. The number of Dutch-speaking supporters seems to have increased since 2021 not to have increased. Despite this stagnation, the movement is progressing: some individuals leave accelerationist networks and others join new ones. The Dutch-speaking right-wing terrorist environment also has a low level of organisation. A threat of violence emanates from one person. The profile of the trailers is also unchanged. The ideas are particularly attractive to vulnerable boys and men 13 tot 30 years old, who often have an unstable home situation and sometimes struggle with psychosocial problems or psychopathological conditions, which makes it difficult to establish social contacts. They come into contact with the ideas through the internet and online gaming. The online nature makes it difficult to estimate who will resort to violence: those who shout the loudest online are not necessarily the ones who also take physical action.
Online, Dutch-language accelerationists use open and private social media platforms for communication, recruitment and sharing propaganda. The wide reach of open social media platforms is used, after which it redirects to closed channels. There, accelerationists have more room to vent their ideas in the most extreme form. Also the trend towards alternative end-to-end encrypted social media, such as Wire and Element (formerly Riot), continues. This is in line with the growing privacy- and security awareness of right-wing extremist movements and complicates the view of intelligence- and security services on their online expressions. Accelerationists don't stay on the same social media platforms all the time, but moving from one platform to another. Sometimes they do this voluntarily, for example due to the emergence of advanced platforms. In other cases, content moderation forces them to switch to other social media platforms. New groups are also regularly added while others disappear.
Outside the internet, right-wing terrorism is less common than initially assumed. Attacks with a right-wing extremist or accelerationist motive are rare in Europe. However, this does not mean that this ideology does not pose a threat, because the possibility of violence remains. Thus took place in Slovakia at the beginning of October 2022 an attack with an accelerationist motive took place, in which two people died (see section 'Right-wing terrorist attacks inspired by accelerationism and the population theory'). In addition, six people were arrested in Europe last year for planning or preparing a terrorist attack based on such a motive and several accelerationists were again arrested this year, for example in England, Germany and Slovakia.
In October, a man was convicted in the Netherlands of sedition and the online distribution of right-wing terrorist material. The online dissemination of such material may incite terrorist crimes. Also the dissemination of apparently less inflammatory content, for example in the form of supposedly humorous memes, contributes to the spread and normalization of radical ideas.
There are probably a few hundred Dutch-speaking supporters of such right-wing terrorist ideology. The number of Dutch-speaking supporters seems to have increased since 2021 not to have increased. Despite this stagnation, the movement is progressing: some individuals leave accelerationist networks and others join new ones. The Dutch-speaking right-wing terrorist environment also has a low level of organisation. A threat of violence emanates from one person. The profile of the trailers is also unchanged. The ideas are particularly attractive to vulnerable boys and men 13 tot 30 years old, who often have an unstable home situation and sometimes struggle with psychosocial problems or psychopathological conditions, which makes it difficult to establish social contacts. They come into contact with the ideas through the internet and online gaming. The online nature makes it difficult to estimate who will resort to violence: those who shout the loudest online are not necessarily the ones who also take physical action.
Online, Dutch-language accelerationists use open and private social media platforms for communication, recruitment and sharing propaganda. The wide reach of open social media platforms is used, after which it redirects to closed channels. There, accelerationists have more room to vent their ideas in the most extreme form. Also the trend towards alternative end-to-end encrypted social media, such as Wire and Element (formerly Riot), continues. This is in line with the growing privacy- and security awareness of right-wing extremist movements and complicates the view of intelligence- and security services on their online expressions. Accelerationists don't stay on the same social media platforms all the time, but moving from one platform to another. Sometimes they do this voluntarily, for example due to the emergence of advanced platforms. In other cases, content moderation forces them to switch to other social media platforms. New groups are also regularly added while others disappear.
Outside the internet, right-wing terrorism is less common than initially assumed. Attacks with a right-wing extremist or accelerationist motive are rare in Europe. However, this does not mean that this ideology does not pose a threat, because the possibility of violence remains. Thus took place in Slovakia at the beginning of October 2022 an attack with an accelerationist motive took place, in which two people died (see section 'Right-wing terrorist attacks inspired by accelerationism and the population theory'). In addition, six people were arrested in Europe last year for planning or preparing a terrorist attack based on such a motive and several accelerationists were again arrested this year, for example in England, Germany and Slovakia.
In October, a man was convicted in the Netherlands of sedition and the online distribution of right-wing terrorist material. The online dissemination of such material may incite terrorist crimes. Also the dissemination of apparently less inflammatory content, for example in the form of supposedly humorous memes, contributes to the spread and normalization of radical ideas.
Normalization of the population theory in the Netherlands
A similarity between accelerationism and most other right-wing extremist currents is the belief in the population theory. Terrorists use it to legitimize their actions, but the theory comes from alt-right. It is a given that the demographic composition of Western countries has changed in recent decades, but supporters of the population theory assume malicious intent. According to the theory, certain groups, often "the Jews" or "the left-wing elite", systematically change the population composition of Western countries by replacing white people with people with a different cultural or ethnic background. Based on the idea that the survival of the white race is held back by a Jewish elite, the population theory leads to a revival of anti-Semitism. Right-wing extremists believe that the birth rates of white people should increase and also oppose miscegenation, of feminists, the lhbti scene and immigrants. Accelerationists see violence and race war as the answer to the supposed population.
A worrying development is that the depopulation theory has also moved from the corners of the internet to more mainstream discussions in the Netherlands.. Openly and uncritically discussing such xenophobic and partly racist ideas, and other conspiracy theories, contributes to social acceptance. Research shows that the repeated propagation of such ideas in the media and on social media contributes to its further normalization. This is by no means to say that all propagators of the ideology also approve of terrorist violence, but it can contribute to right-wing extremists feeling legitimized in their ideas.
A similarity between accelerationism and most other right-wing extremist currents is the belief in the population theory. Terrorists use it to legitimize their actions, but the theory comes from alt-right. It is a given that the demographic composition of Western countries has changed in recent decades, but supporters of the population theory assume malicious intent. According to the theory, certain groups, often "the Jews" or "the left-wing elite", systematically change the population composition of Western countries by replacing white people with people with a different cultural or ethnic background. Based on the idea that the survival of the white race is held back by a Jewish elite, the population theory leads to a revival of anti-Semitism. Right-wing extremists believe that the birth rates of white people should increase and also oppose miscegenation, of feminists, the lhbti scene and immigrants. Accelerationists see violence and race war as the answer to the supposed population.
A worrying development is that the depopulation theory has also moved from the corners of the internet to more mainstream discussions in the Netherlands.. Openly and uncritically discussing such xenophobic and partly racist ideas, and other conspiracy theories, contributes to social acceptance. Research shows that the repeated propagation of such ideas in the media and on social media contributes to its further normalization. This is by no means to say that all propagators of the ideology also approve of terrorist violence, but it can contribute to right-wing extremists feeling legitimized in their ideas.
Right-wing terrorist attacks inspired by accelerationism and the population theory
This year it has been shown several times that violence can arise from right-wing extremist online environments. Both the 18-year-old perpetrator of an attack in May on colored visitors to a supermarket in the American city of Buffalo (ten dead), as the 19-year-old perpetrator of an attack on an LGBTI bar in the Slovak capital Bratislava in October (two dead) shared right-wing extremist manifestos justifying their actions. The Slovak, who, in his own words, radicalized on right-wing extremist internet forums, referred to accelerationism in his manifesto, previous right-wing terrorist attackers, possible targets and Jew-hatred. The perpetrator of the attack in Buffalo also found inspiration in previous right-wing terrorist attackers. The American shared images of his attack via a live stream and he also published a voluminous manifesto in which he described himself as a racist, fascist and anti-Semite. Ideologically, the perpetrator of the attack in Buffalo mainly bases himself on the above-mentioned population theory. Although the perpetrator does not explicitly refer to accelerationism, the idea that the alleged population must be stopped by force is also central to his manifesto.
The Slovak attacker's manifesto has been shared and praised on accelerationist and neo-Nazi channels. According to partner services, the attack in Buffalo is assessed differently in closed channels of Dutch right-wing extremists. Classical neo-Nazis see little in such an attack because these types of attacks are counterproductive for their own political projects - in which they also invoke the repopulation theory. Accelerationists react more positively: they spread jokes and memes and refer to the perpetrator – as with previous right-wing terrorist attackers – as a saint.
This year it has been shown several times that violence can arise from right-wing extremist online environments. Both the 18-year-old perpetrator of an attack in May on colored visitors to a supermarket in the American city of Buffalo (ten dead), as the 19-year-old perpetrator of an attack on an LGBTI bar in the Slovak capital Bratislava in October (two dead) shared right-wing extremist manifestos justifying their actions. The Slovak, who, in his own words, radicalized on right-wing extremist internet forums, referred to accelerationism in his manifesto, previous right-wing terrorist attackers, possible targets and Jew-hatred. The perpetrator of the attack in Buffalo also found inspiration in previous right-wing terrorist attackers. The American shared images of his attack via a live stream and he also published a voluminous manifesto in which he described himself as a racist, fascist and anti-Semite. Ideologically, the perpetrator of the attack in Buffalo mainly bases himself on the above-mentioned population theory. Although the perpetrator does not explicitly refer to accelerationism, the idea that the alleged population must be stopped by force is also central to his manifesto.
The Slovak attacker's manifesto has been shared and praised on accelerationist and neo-Nazi channels. According to partner services, the attack in Buffalo is assessed differently in closed channels of Dutch right-wing extremists. Classical neo-Nazis see little in such an attack because these types of attacks are counterproductive for their own political projects - in which they also invoke the repopulation theory. Accelerationists react more positively: they spread jokes and memes and refer to the perpetrator – as with previous right-wing terrorist attackers – as a saint.
Right-wing extremist groups are coming together again
Classic right-wing extremists meet again more often during physical meetings. Since the end of the restrictive corona measures 2022 small groups of neo-Nazis and anti-Islam demonstrators gather for demonstrations, protest actions, sticker promotions, physical training or joint activities such as walks and drinks. Several dozen Dutch people also visited extreme right-wing events in Belgium, Germany and Hungary and have contact with like-minded people in Scandinavia. In addition, known and new right-wing extremist groups make themselves heard online and through visible expressions in the public space. The enthusiasm for the known right-wing extremist groups in the Netherlands remains limited and there is no direct threat of violence. However, there may be intimidation of opponents.
The threat of the classic right-wing extremist ideology manifests itself in particular in the undermining of the democratic legal order and in the violation of the rule of law and social cohesion in society. The normalization of the population theory is an example of this. Right-wing extremists actively propagate such ideas and have online and offline reach. Ideas about, for example, the foundation of a white ethno-state challenges the fundamental rights of groups in society. Right-wing extremist ideas can also spread through joining other protests. For example, earlier connections to the radical part of the corona protest and conspiracy theorists led to a mixing of discourses. It is now sometimes difficult to distinguish right-wing extremists from anti-government extremists: it is an amorphous group, where unclear, changing and mixed views often coincide with personal grievances and psychological problems.
Classic right-wing extremists meet again more often during physical meetings. Since the end of the restrictive corona measures 2022 small groups of neo-Nazis and anti-Islam demonstrators gather for demonstrations, protest actions, sticker promotions, physical training or joint activities such as walks and drinks. Several dozen Dutch people also visited extreme right-wing events in Belgium, Germany and Hungary and have contact with like-minded people in Scandinavia. In addition, known and new right-wing extremist groups make themselves heard online and through visible expressions in the public space. The enthusiasm for the known right-wing extremist groups in the Netherlands remains limited and there is no direct threat of violence. However, there may be intimidation of opponents.
The threat of the classic right-wing extremist ideology manifests itself in particular in the undermining of the democratic legal order and in the violation of the rule of law and social cohesion in society. The normalization of the population theory is an example of this. Right-wing extremists actively propagate such ideas and have online and offline reach. Ideas about, for example, the foundation of a white ethno-state challenges the fundamental rights of groups in society. Right-wing extremist ideas can also spread through joining other protests. For example, earlier connections to the radical part of the corona protest and conspiracy theorists led to a mixing of discourses. It is now sometimes difficult to distinguish right-wing extremists from anti-government extremists: it is an amorphous group, where unclear, changing and mixed views often coincide with personal grievances and psychological problems.
Right-wing extremist interest in a job at Defense continues
In 2020 Ministry of Defense noted an increased interest of right-wing extremist young people for a career within the Dutch armed forces, as also described in the previous DTN. They think that the armed forces fit in well with their vision of masculinity, struggle and self-reliance. Some of these right-wing extremists want the military training they can get in the armed forces, committed to transforming society into a white ethno-state. Follow-up research by the MIVD shows that the interest of right-wing extremists in a job with the armed forces continues. It currently concerns a relatively small group of young men and there are no indications that they currently have terrorist intentions. Nevertheless, the presence of right-wing extremists can harm the deployability of the armed forces, in particular through the erosion of social cohesion and reduction of support for protecting democracy and a pluralistic society. As a result, they pose a threat to national security and the democratic legal order.
In 2020 Ministry of Defense noted an increased interest of right-wing extremist young people for a career within the Dutch armed forces, as also described in the previous DTN. They think that the armed forces fit in well with their vision of masculinity, struggle and self-reliance. Some of these right-wing extremists want the military training they can get in the armed forces, committed to transforming society into a white ethno-state. Follow-up research by the MIVD shows that the interest of right-wing extremists in a job with the armed forces continues. It currently concerns a relatively small group of young men and there are no indications that they currently have terrorist intentions. Nevertheless, the presence of right-wing extremists can harm the deployability of the armed forces, in particular through the erosion of social cohesion and reduction of support for protecting democracy and a pluralistic society. As a result, they pose a threat to national security and the democratic legal order.
Right-wing extremists' enthusiasm for leaving Ukraine remains minimal
Dutch right-wing extremists are still not prepared to travel to Ukraine to fight for one of the warring parties. Shortly after Russia at the end of February 2022 Ukraine, a discussion arose between right-wing extremists about whether they are on the Russian or Ukrainian side. On the one hand, Russia was seen as an aggressor, on the other hand, they had difficulty with the Ukrainian president's Jewish background. More generally, right-wing extremists see the war as a brotherly battle in which white people become victims, and keep aloof. To date, hardly any Dutch right-wing extremists have left for Ukraine. There also does not seem to be a large influx of right-wing extremists from other European countries to the conflict area.(…)Within the nitrogen protest, various actors are using the government's plans from different motives to protest. There are different groups that are often separate from each other and without coordination, strategy or coordination operate. In the first place, this concerns farmers who are affected by the government's plans and who mainly take action for economic and identity reasons. In addition, there is a group of farmers who are not directly affected by the cabinet plans and other sympathizers who feel related to the protests.. This group is also driven by identitarian motives or anti-government sentiments. A final group are anti-government activists and extremists, conspiracy theorists and, to a lesser extent, right-wing extremists seeking to join the protest. They see nitrogen policy as part of a malignantly oppressive agenda that the government, according to both the elite narrative and the depopulation theory, would pursue. The distinction between the groups that together form the nitrogen protest is not absolute: they have no hard boundaries and can flow into each other. It is also not always clear who is behind specific actions; protesting farmers or anti-government activists.
The connection of anti-government extremists and conspiracy theorists to the nitrogen protest can lead to hardening. With a few exceptions, for the time being, most farmers seem to be little receptive to the interference of anti-government extremists and right-wing extremists. To date, there seems to be no significant and/or lasting cooperation between protesting farmers and extremist groups. It does seem, however, that parts of the peasant protest movement are adopting the methods of the anti-government movement. A rapprochement is possible in the future, given the common ground that at least the anti-government extremists see, the terminology used by protesting farmers and the possibilities that an association between the two groups would offer to increase the following.
Dutch right-wing extremists are still not prepared to travel to Ukraine to fight for one of the warring parties. Shortly after Russia at the end of February 2022 Ukraine, a discussion arose between right-wing extremists about whether they are on the Russian or Ukrainian side. On the one hand, Russia was seen as an aggressor, on the other hand, they had difficulty with the Ukrainian president's Jewish background. More generally, right-wing extremists see the war as a brotherly battle in which white people become victims, and keep aloof. To date, hardly any Dutch right-wing extremists have left for Ukraine. There also does not seem to be a large influx of right-wing extremists from other European countries to the conflict area.(…)Within the nitrogen protest, various actors are using the government's plans from different motives to protest. There are different groups that are often separate from each other and without coordination, strategy or coordination operate. In the first place, this concerns farmers who are affected by the government's plans and who mainly take action for economic and identity reasons. In addition, there is a group of farmers who are not directly affected by the cabinet plans and other sympathizers who feel related to the protests.. This group is also driven by identitarian motives or anti-government sentiments. A final group are anti-government activists and extremists, conspiracy theorists and, to a lesser extent, right-wing extremists seeking to join the protest. They see nitrogen policy as part of a malignantly oppressive agenda that the government, according to both the elite narrative and the depopulation theory, would pursue. The distinction between the groups that together form the nitrogen protest is not absolute: they have no hard boundaries and can flow into each other. It is also not always clear who is behind specific actions; protesting farmers or anti-government activists.
The connection of anti-government extremists and conspiracy theorists to the nitrogen protest can lead to hardening. With a few exceptions, for the time being, most farmers seem to be little receptive to the interference of anti-government extremists and right-wing extremists. To date, there seems to be no significant and/or lasting cooperation between protesting farmers and extremist groups. It does seem, however, that parts of the peasant protest movement are adopting the methods of the anti-government movement. A rapprochement is possible in the future, given the common ground that at least the anti-government extremists see, the terminology used by protesting farmers and the possibilities that an association between the two groups would offer to increase the following.